Senin, 22 November 2010

Euro Naik Solid oleh Keputusan Irlandia Terima Bantuan Internasional

0 komentar Diposting oleh Jalatama Artha Berjangka di 14.11

Senin, 22 November 2010 08:00 WIB
Pada perdagangan hari ini tampak nilai tukar euro mengalami kenaikan yang cukup signifikan terhadap dolar AS (22/11). Mata uang tunggal di kawasan Eropa ini menguat setelah Irlandia memutuskan untuk menerima bantuan internasional untuk membantu penangangan krisis perbankan dan anggaran di negaranya.

 

Aussie Terangkat, Investor Percaya Langkah China Tepat Untuk Hindari Bubble

0 komentar Diposting oleh Jalatama Artha Berjangka di 14.10

Senin, 22 November 2010 08:20 WIB
Pada perdagangan hari ini tampak nilai tukar aussie terhadap dolar AS mengalami kenaikan signifikan (22/11). Aussie menguat solid terhadap rival utamanya tersebut setelah pada perdagangan akhir minggu lalu sempat mengalami tekanan jual yang cukup tajam.

 

Jumat, 12 November 2010

Rupiah Melemah Tipis di Akhir Sesi

0 komentar Diposting oleh Jalatama Artha Berjangka di 15.34

(Vibiznews – Economy) – Pada perdagangan di pasar spot antarbank Jakarta pagi hari ini tampak nilai tukar rupiah masih melanjutkan pergerakan melemah terhadap rival utamanya, dolar AS (12/11). Di perdagangan hari Jumat ini rupiah tampak mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan.

Rupiah tampak sempat mengalami pergerakan menguat yang cukup solid terhadap dolar AS seiring dengan kondisi mata uang AS yang sedang terpukul. Dolar anjlok tajam terhadap rival-rival utamanya setelah Fed memutuskan untuk menyuntikkan dana senilai 600 miliar dolar untuk melakukan pembelian terhadap sekuritas milik pemerintah AS. 

Akan tetapi pada hari ini tampaknya menguatnya dolar mulai memukul nilai tukar rupiah. Hari ini dolar mengalami kenaikan ke posisi tertinggi dalam enam minggu belakangan terhadap euro.

Pada akhir perdagangan di pasar spot antarbank Jakarta sore hari ini nilai tukar rupiah terpantau berada di posisi 8.919/8.929 per dolar. Posisi rupiah ini mengalami penurunan yang cukup tajam atau sebesar 23 poin dibandingkan penutupan perdagangan sebelumnya yang berada di posisi 8.894/8.904 per dolar. Rupiah telah sempat mengalami penurunan hingga ke posisi 8.923/8.933 per dolar.

Analis Vibiz Research dari Vibiz Consulting memperkirakan bahwa pergerakan rupiah masih akan ditahan untuk tidak terlalu jauh mengalami kenaikan. Rupiah akan sulit untuk menembus ke bawah 8.800 per dolar dengan kehadiran intervensi BI.

 

Jagung Lanjutkan Pelemahan 5 Hari Terakhir

0 komentar Diposting oleh Jalatama Artha Berjangka di 15.33

Harga jagung pada perdagangan hari ini (12/11) kembali melanjutkan pelemahannya dalam 5 hari terakhir. Melemahnya pergerakan jagung untuk hari ini disebabkan oleh adanya laporan bahwa luas perkebunan produksi jagung AS yang akan dipanen untuk tahun ini diperkirakan akan mengalami kenaikan sebesar 93,055 juta hektar. 

Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh adanya sentimen dari membaiknya kondisi cuaca di Memphis dan Tennessee yang merupakan 2 dari beberapa negara bagian penghasil jagung terbesar di AS

 

New Zealand: No Forex Intervention

0 komentar Diposting oleh Jalatama Artha Berjangka di 15.30

Despite reaching a temporary stalemate, the currency war rages on, and individual countries continue to debate whether they should enter or watch their currencies continue to appreciate. Nowhere is that debate stronger than in New Zealand, whose Kiwi currency has fallen 37% against the US Dollar since its peak in early 2009, and over 15% since June of this year.
USD NZD 5 Year Chart
With most countries, the war cries are coming from the political establishment, who feel compelled to demonstrate to their constituents that they are diligently monitoring the currency war. This is largely the case in New Zealand, as Members of Parliament have argued forcefully in favor of intervention. Prime Minister John Key is a little more pragmatic: He “says his Government is concerned about the strength of our dollar, but is not convinced intervention would work…politicians who think intervention can happen without economic consequences, are fooling themselves.” Showing an astute understanding of economics, he pointed out that trying to limit the Kiwi’s appreciation would manifest itself in the form of higher inflation, higher interest rates, and/or reduced access to capital.
This is essentially the position of Alan Bollard, Governor of the Central Bank of New Zealand. He has insisted (correctly) that the New Zealand is being driven up, so much as its currency counterparts – namely the US Dollar – are being driven downward, by forces completely disconnected from New Zealand and way beyond its control. Thus, if New Zealand tried to intervene, it would quickly be overpowered (perhaps deliberately!) by speculators. Ultimately, it would end up spending lots of money in vain, and the Kiwi would continue to appreciate.
Mr. Bollard has pointed out that a stronger currency is not without its perks: such as lower (relative) prices for certain natural resources, such as oil. In addition, since New Zealand is largely a commodity economy, its producers are being compensated for an expensive currency in the form of higher prices for milk, wool, and other staple exports. While its other manufacturing operations have been punished by the expensive Kiwi, its economy is still relatively robust. Thanks to a series of tax cuts and the lowest interest rates in New Zealand history, GDP is forecast to return to trend in 2010 and 2011.
New Zealand Current Account Balance 2000 - 2014
New Zealand’s concerns are understandable, and there is an argument to be made for preventing the Dollars that are printed from the Fed’s QE2 from being put to unproductive purposes in New Zealand. At the same time, New Zealand is not such an attractive target for speculators. Its benchmark interest rate, at 3%, is relatively low compared to developing countries. Its current account balance is projected to continue declining, perhaps down to -8%, which means that the net flow of capital is actually out of New Zealand. In addition, while the Kiwi has appreciated against the US Dollar, it has fallen mightily against the Australian Dollar en route to a multi-year low.
Going forward, there is reason to believe that the New Zealand Dollar will continue to appreciate against the US Dollar as a result of QE2 and a general sense of pessimism towards the US. The same is true with regard to currencies that actively intervene to prevent their currencies from appreciating. Still, I don’t think the New Zealand Dollar will reach parity – against any currency – anytime soon, and after the currency fracas subsides, it will probably trend towards its long-term average.

 

Subscribe to: Postingan (Atom)